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  • Riders Free Agency Recap

    I separate the moves made on offense and defense and look at where the team stands now. I also make a WAY too early prediction on where the Riders will finish in 2019

    http://pifflespodcast.com/blog/free-...and-prediction

  • #2
    11-7 and second place??? Man I hope you're right but I can't see it. I guess a Rider blog / podcast are expected to be biased homers though as part of what you guys do is drum up hype for the team.

    A couple thoughts;

    - I think assuming a healthy Collaros is a bad assumption. Based on what we've seen it's more prudent to assume he will miss time and hope he surprises.
    - The loss of Jefferson, Eguavon and Antigha are bigger than the gain of Johnson and Leonard.
    - Agree with "it's hard to imagine the offence being worse". By law of avergaes it should simply improve. That said, on paper, it's the fifth strongest group in the division IMO with a coordinator that the jury is very much out on.

    I am predicting 7-11 or 8-10 but hoping we can grease out a win or two we don't deserve (it can happen after all, just look at 2018) and snag 9-9 and a crossover.

    Thanks for posting though and taking the time to write it.

    Comment


    • #3
      I feel like the addition of Leonard and Johnson outweigh the loss of Antigha and Jefferson. Where we are going to hurt the most is the loss of Eguavoen. Worst case scenario, we go with a guy like Jeff Knox Jr, who is still young (27) and did well enough in his time here to earn an NFL look. Best case, they find another stud in one of their FA camps down south or Sam E shakes looks and finds his way back up here. Either way, I don't expect a huge drop off, defensively but it is possible.

      Offensively - I do agree its more likely to assume that Collaros will get injured and miss time, but I didn't want to go about predicting a guys injury. When you go in to a season, you go into it expecting your starters to play.

      For the Riders to finish 2nd, they will need to come out of the gates hot against the East, while BC and Edmonton find their legs with new QBs (both) and new systems (BC).

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Bingo_Arms View Post
        11-7 and second place??? Man I hope you're right but I can't see it. I guess a Rider blog / podcast are expected to be biased homers though as part of what you guys do is drum up hype for the team.

        A couple thoughts;

        - I think assuming a healthy Collaros is a bad assumption. Based on what we've seen it's more prudent to assume he will miss time and hope he surprises.
        - The loss of Jefferson, Eguavon and Antigha are bigger than the gain of Johnson and Leonard.
        - Agree with "it's hard to imagine the offence being worse". By law of avergaes it should simply improve. That said, on paper, it's the fifth strongest group in the division IMO with a coordinator that the jury is very much out on.

        I am predicting 7-11 or 8-10 but hoping we can grease out a win or two we don't deserve (it can happen after all, just look at 2018) and snag 9-9 and a crossover.

        Thanks for posting though and taking the time to write it.
        My issue with people calling Collaros "fragile" or injury prone is that no one is really "prone" to getting folded in half like a pretzel by a blind side hit, because your O line decided to impersonate pylons for that play. To simply look at his Games played stats, and say "see, he has never played a full 18 games, so he must be injury prone" is a little bit of an over reach... He may play hard, but there are plenty of QB's that don't play a full 18 games in a season, and are not deemed "injury prone"... He played 14 games despite 2 dirty hits that removed him for concussion protocol.... Nichols also played 14 games... for hurting himself by stepping backwards... Masoli and Bo levi only played 17 games... Lulay played 12 games.. If someone has a tendency of re-injuring or having similar injuries through out multiple seasons, then yeah, they are Prone to injuries... but a guy taking unneccesary head shots and being pulled for CTE watch is the league/Team/Player trying to make sure guys don't end up wrecked for the rest of their life.

        I am trying to think of any one injury he sustained last year that would not have likely knocked out even the toughest of QB's...

        Playing the "What if" game... What if Collaros doesn't go into the Preseason game and take a devastating hit which laid the ground work for a concussion sensitive season? Does he roll through the TOR game looking better and doens't need ot come out in the OTT game? The biggest issue last season, was him taking that first hit in the PS2 against CGY, and then continuing to play with a concussion, until he was hit again in the week 2 game against OTT.

        The hit late against Willis would still have removed him from the game, more likely then not, but he is likely the starter for the WSF.

        That one hit in Preseason, and the subsequent "playing while injured", basically set him up for a season of injury watch... If he isn't going to pull himself when injured, then the staff will need to pull him/ sit him if they have any concerns.

        I think you can go in optimisitc that Collaros plays the full season sans-major injury, especially if our O line play holds like it did for most of the back half of last season.

        before anyone screams that I am defending Collaros, I am not... I am stating that I dislike when people say someone if injury prone, based on something that is beyond their control and should be illegal and warrant suspensions/bans for repeat offenders....

        it's like saying you are injury prone, because every time a car hits you, you break a leg.
        Last edited by Itzgodzilla; 03-14-2019, 09:02 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by safimod View Post
          I feel like the addition of Leonard and Johnson outweigh the loss of Antigha and Jefferson. Where we are going to hurt the most is the loss of Eguavoen. Worst case scenario, we go with a guy like Jeff Knox Jr, who is still young (27) and did well enough in his time here to earn an NFL look. Best case, they find another stud in one of their FA camps down south or Sam E shakes looks and finds his way back up here. Either way, I don't expect a huge drop off, defensively but it is possible.

          Offensively - I do agree its more likely to assume that Collaros will get injured and miss time, but I didn't want to go about predicting a guys injury. When you go in to a season, you go into it expecting your starters to play.

          For the Riders to finish 2nd, they will need to come out of the gates hot against the East, while BC and Edmonton find their legs with new QBs (both) and new systems (BC).
          But Knox isnít on the roster yet unless I missed his signing. I agree he would be a good additions But we canít say Johnson/Leonard/Knox will be as good or better than Jeff/Antigha/Eguavon when we donít have Knox at the moment. Again, did I miss that signing? Iíd be thrilled to hear I did!

          A lot of your prediction seems based not on what the roster is like today but what you are ďhopingĒ happens, such as signing Knox or hoping Eguavon is back or hoping the most injury prone starter in the league defies odds and plays the year.

          I agree that if other things happen and players come our way, we could exceee exceed what I see playing out but right now my predictions are based on the actual roster of the team and the trend the players on that roster have shown.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Itzgodzilla View Post

            I think you can go in optimisitc that Collaros plays the full season sans-major injury, especially if our O line play holds like it did for most of the back half of last season.
            I donít understand how anyone can be ďoptimisticĒ that Collaros starts 18 games. It doesnít matter how he sustained those hits, itís the fact that he did and now his marshmallow is even more susceptible to injury. Iím ďhopingĒ heís healthy all year but itís based on nothing more than crossed fingers and wishful thinking based on his track record.

            Our pass protection was also deceiving and over rated. If you watch the games you can see that there was pressure and our guys were getting beat. What masked it IMO and made us look better stats wise was the fact that;
            a) we had the second least amount of plays from scrimmage in the entire CFL,
            b) of those limited plays that our offence could even run, we were second in the entire league in rushing attempts and
            c) our QBís required protecting the second least amount in the league as we only attempted 545 passes, only more than Montreal and a far cry from the 671 that Ottawa did as league leaders for example.

            If you run the ball a lot, arenít on the field much and when you do pass you generally throw short and quickly - youíre going to hide some pass protection problems.
            Last edited by Bingo_Arms; 03-14-2019, 09:15 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Bingo_Arms View Post

              But Knox isnít on the roster yet unless I missed his signing. I agree he would be a good additions But we canít say Johnson/Leonard/Knox will be as good or better than Jeff/Antigha/Eguavon when we donít have Knox at the moment. Again, did I miss that signing? Iíd be thrilled to hear I did!

              A lot of your prediction seems based not on what the roster is like today but what you are ďhopingĒ happens, such as signing Knox or hoping Eguavon is back or hoping the most injury prone starter in the league defies odds and plays the year.

              I agree that if other things happen and players come our way, we could exceee exceed what I see playing out but right now my predictions are based on the actual roster of the team and the trend the players on that roster have shown.
              Nope - Knox isn't on the roster. I used him as an example of someone I think the Riders will go after if mini camps/current roster don't give at least a halfway decent replacement. My prediction is based on the roster at hand over an 18 game season. Obviously, should Zach take more awful head shots and lose time, the Riders chances of meeting my prediction will drop with each game he misses. I don't have a ton of faith in Cody Fajardo, but I had less in Brandon Bridge by the end of the season

              I'll admit - my prediction is ambitious and perhaps a wee bit homerish, but certainly not unrealistic. We will see in about 6 months

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by safimod View Post

                Nope - Knox isn't on the roster. I used him as an example of someone I think the Riders will go after if mini camps/current roster don't give at least a halfway decent replacement. My prediction is based on the roster at hand over an 18 game season. Obviously, should Zach take more awful head shots and lose time, the Riders chances of meeting my prediction will drop with each game he misses. I don't have a ton of faith in Cody Fajardo, but I had less in Brandon Bridge by the end of the season

                I'll admit - my prediction is ambitious and perhaps a wee bit homerish, but certainly not unrealistic. We will see in about 6 months
                Well if we sign Knox, Eguavon comes back, JWL is released in a couple months and Dakoda Shepley is here in time for training camp I'll adjust my prediction.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Bingo_Arms View Post

                  Well if we sign Knox, Eguavon comes back, JWL is released in a couple months and Dakoda Shepley is here in time for training camp I'll adjust my prediction.
                  I wouldn't adjust my prediction for Shepley - he'll need at least 2019 to get into professional playing shape... cmon Bingo - you gotta be realistic here

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I'd definitely put us in the lost more than we gained category despite the fact I try to look on the bright side. I'm more disappointed in the loss of Antigha than Jefferson.

                    Can someone tell me what happened to Matt Elam?
                    2018 YNOT Champ

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I am pretty sure when Derek Taylor did his numbers on pass pro, it was based on percentage of drop backs so he already factored in # of attempts into the equation

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by safimod View Post

                        I wouldn't adjust my prediction for Shepley - he'll need at least 2019 to get into professional playing shape... cmon Bingo - you gotta be realistic here
                        Lol fair comment on Shepley, though I'd hope he's in shape. But I think you got my point anyways.

                        If JWL comes back, bubble wrapped Collaros' head isn't oatmeal during the season, we don't get a single injury, hail comes down only when the opposing team is on offence, Eguavon comes back and brings Knox with him, wind gusts roar when opposing FG kickers take the field and if Bo Levi is suspended for the season for a college entrance scandal ..... "we can do it" (in a Rob Schneider voice).

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Bingo_Arms View Post
                          11-7 and second place??? Man I hope you're right but I can't see it. I guess a Rider blog / podcast are expected to be biased homers though as part of what you guys do is drum up hype for the team.

                          A couple thoughts;

                          - I think assuming a healthy Collaros is a bad assumption. Based on what we've seen it's more prudent to assume he will miss time and hope he surprises.
                          - The loss of Jefferson, Eguavon and Antigha are bigger than the gain of Johnson and Leonard.
                          - Agree with "it's hard to imagine the offence being worse". By law of avergaes it should simply improve. That said, on paper, it's the fifth strongest group in the division IMO with a coordinator that the jury is very much out on.

                          I am predicting 7-11 or 8-10 but hoping we can grease out a win or two we don't deserve (it can happen after all, just look at 2018) and snag 9-9 and a crossover.

                          Thanks for posting though and taking the time to write it.
                          I agree with you.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by riderphan View Post
                            I'd definitely put us in the lost more than we gained category despite the fact I try to look on the bright side. I'm more disappointed in the loss of Antigha than Jefferson.

                            Can someone tell me what happened to Matt Elam?
                            Elam would have been nice to have back. I forgot about that loss as well. He showed some good promise, not sure what happened to him. Antigha is a huge loss, especially for that system. A total swiss army knife and very under rated. I also feel Eguavon, for as good as we all know he was, was also very under rated among opposing fans. The losses, including the DC, are significant.

                            Unless some major changes come, and that's always possible as there are guys still available, trades can happen etc. I think it's an absolute pipe dream to suggest second place in what appears to be an even tougher western division. Roddy would be proud of the Piffles and their homerism.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Bingo_Arms View Post

                              I donít understand how anyone can be ďoptimisticĒ that Collaros starts 18 games. It doesnít matter how he sustained those hits, itís the fact that he did and now his marshmallow is even more susceptible to injury. Iím ďhopingĒ heís healthy all year but itís based on nothing more than crosses fingers based on his track record.

                              Our pass protection was also deceiving and over rated. If you watch the games you can see that thereís was pressure. What masked it IMO and made us look better stats wise was the fact that;
                              a) we had the second least amount of plays from scrimmage in the entire CFL,
                              b) of those limited plays that our offence could even run, we were second in the entire league in rushing attempts and
                              c) our QBís required protecting the second least amount in the league as we only attempted 545 passes, only more than Montreal and a far cry from the 671 that Ottawa did as league leaders for example.

                              If you run the ball a lot, arenít on the field much and when you do pass you generally throw short and quickly - youíre going to hide some pass protection problems.
                              I didn't say I was optimisitc he would play 18 games.. I said it was based on not having a major injury. There were only 2 starting QBs that started/played all 18 games last year... 1 the year prior, and 1 the year before that... and that is only 3 different QB's... Jennings (2016), Reilly (2017 and 2018) and Bo Levi (2018) ... So if the gauge of being "injury prone is having multiple seasons without playing all 18 games, then we have A LOT of injury prone QB's in this league...
                              Last edited by Itzgodzilla; 03-14-2019, 09:36 AM.

                              Comment

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