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CFL Simulation to track playoff and Grey Cup odds

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  • CFL Simulation to track playoff and Grey Cup odds

    Interesting math going on here. Hope this gets updated every week.
    CFL Simulation is back for another year to track playoff and Grey Cup odds the rest of the way and some of the initial results may come as a surprise.

  • #2
    So essentially the playoffs are already set in stone, except for BC and Winnipeg. It's interesting how the stats show we have a 15% chance at beating out Calgary for 1st in the west, whereas Edmonton only has a 5% chance.

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    • #3
      There is some kooky math going on here.
      Odds to win East:
      Hamilton - 92.04%
      Ottawa - 7.85%

      Yet they have identical win-loss records at this point but Ottawa has won the only game they have played by 21-15 on week 7 and they still have two games to play.

      Odds someone from Hamilton is doing the math: 100%

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Guillermo View Post
        There is some kooky math going on here.
        Odds to win East:
        Hamilton - 92.04%
        Ottawa - 7.85%

        Yet they have identical win-loss records at this point but Ottawa has won the only game they have played by 21-15 on week 7 and they still have two games to play.

        Odds someone from Hamilton is doing the math: 100%
        If Ottawa win this wk and Ham lose then next wk the odds would be reversed. Dont pay much attention to these guys pridictions they are right about the same amount as you or I am!

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        • #5
          Calgary clearly headed for their 3rd Simulated Grey Cup in a row. What a dynasty!
          2018 YNOT Champ

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          • #6
            Originally posted by riderphan View Post
            Calgary clearly headed for their 3rd Simulated Grey Cup in a row. What a dynasty!
            lol - there really should be a trophy for that.

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            • #7
              I don't see how Calgary can lose 3 more games... they would have to lose to edmonton, us and perhaps the ticats to make that work. Stranger things have happened... perhaps Montreal?

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              • #8
                The guy who built this model is from the University of Saskatchewan. https://www.cfl.ca/2017/11/17/oleary...ion-algorithm/

                Before any of you get your noses out of joint, the guy knows these are just statistics and analytics and understands you still have to play the games.

                In 2015 and 2016 the Roughriders had a 0.00 chance of doing anything. This has been for me a more enthusiastic year than 2015 and 16. I do it because I love analytics and I talk about it in the classroom. Its nice water-cooler talk but at the end of the day I know I also enjoy watching the game as well because then I can see what actually happens on the field.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by dirtydangles View Post
                  So essentially the playoffs are already set in stone, except for BC and Winnipeg. It's interesting how the stats show we have a 15% chance at beating out Calgary for 1st in the west, whereas Edmonton only has a 5% chance.
                  This teams feels to me like it was built specifically to beat the stamps sort of like the 2009ish riders felt like they were built to beat the als. The esks on the other hand feel like they were built to win as many games as they can.
                  Last edited by failedslacker; 09-11-2018, 11:31 AM. Reason: forgot the other half of the thought

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by failedslacker View Post
                    This teams feels to me like it was built specifically to beat the stamps sort of like the 2009ish riders felt like they were built to beat the als. The esks on the other hand feel like they were built to win as many games as they can.
                    The Esks are built to rack up as many glory stats as possible in garbage time.

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                    • #11
                      Did anyone else catch this awesome little tidbit at the bottom of the article
                      For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
                      1990 strikes again!!!

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by dirtydangles View Post
                        So essentially the playoffs are already set in stone, except for BC and Winnipeg. It's interesting how the stats show we have a 15% chance at beating out Calgary for 1st in the west, whereas Edmonton only has a 5% chance.
                        Riders have played one less game than the Esks but have as many wins, plus have another game with the Stamps. So it actually makes sense. The Esks are unlikely to get ahead of the Stamps at this point, but in a tie they do have the season series
                        #keepthepromise

                        Onward with escaping the hopeless fantasy of an artificial freedom and darkened picket fences the disillusioned front of friendly foes

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by riderphan View Post
                          Calgary clearly headed for their 3rd Simulated Grey Cup in a row. What a dynasty!
                          can they simulate choking?
                          Alberta boy, Rider fan

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                          • #14
                            Doing the odds on who Calgary loses too in this year's grey cup

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                            • #15
                              The 2018 CFL Playoffs are still months away but another season of dominance from the Calgary Stampeders has earned them the right to clinch the first spot in the post-season.

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